When we came up with the idea for the "Captain's Log", we set an objective to create weekly content that was engaging, thought-provoking, insightful, informative, inspiring... and NOT JUST ABOUT REAL ESTATE! (boring) .

But we decided that this week, it would be appropriate to discuss our local real estate markets and the impact that we're able to detect so far from the effects of COVID-19.  It is what we do, after all!

At the end of each month, we gain access to valuable statistical data provided by our real estate boards through Centris. We just reviewed the data for the period ending April 30th, 2020... and what we're seeing is no big surprise.

The good news first!

Just about every West Island municipality continues to see median price increases that are still in line with the rate of growth we've been experiencing over the past 2-3 years.  Let's look at a quick sample of neighbourhoods and their median price variations. In this case, we're looking at the first 4 months of this year (Jan-Apr 2020) compared to the first 4 months of last year (Jan-Apr 2019)

Municipality                               Percentage Change in Median Price (Jan-Apr)

Beaconsfield                                                     + 14.85%

Dollard                                                              +  8.54%

Pointe-Claire                                                     + 25.29%

Pierrefonds-Roxboro                                         +  9.59%

These same numbers are a little different, but still consistent with a healthy level of growth, even if we look at JUST the month of April 2020, compared to April 2019.

Municipality                               Percentage Change in Median Price (April Only)

Beaconsfield                                                        + 36.32%

Dollard                                                                 + 15.18%

Pointe-Claire                                                        +  1.47%

Pierrefonds-Roxboro                                            +  2.04%

Now, the not-so-good-news, but also not surprising considering the circumstances, is that sales volume, or the number of houses selling - is waaaay down this April compared to last April.  

The Island of Montreal as a whole saw a 71% decrease in sales this April. That's astounding!!

Again, if we take a random sample of some West Island boroughs - here is what we see:

Municipality                               Percentage Change in # of Sales

Dorval                                                   - 69.23%

Kirkland                                                - 66.67%

Lachine West                                       - 75.00%

Beaconsfield                                        - 69.23%

The restrictions imposed by the Quebec government made it very challenging for home buyers and sellers to conduct real estate transactions - especially since the timing of this crisis occurred right at the start of our very busy moving season - typically the busiest time of year! Our team noticed that most people who chose to move ahead with plans to buy or sell this spring, were in a position of urgency where the need to move outweighed the risks of exposure in these strange and awkward times.

In some cases, we still saw homes selling quickly and with little to no conditions attached to the offers. At least two of our listings sold this past month in multiple offers, sight-unseen, based on 3-D virtual tours and pre-listing inspection reports. 

However, the vast majority of activity has come to a screeching halt - as is clearly being reflected in the statistics. 

It will be interesting to see what reaction this will cause once the government lifts their restrictions, and the public begin to resume their plans to move this calendar year.

We're predicting a SURGE in activity during the next 6-8 months that will likely be the natural result of the past 2-3 months of back-log and hesitation.  We sense a great deal of pent-up demand just waiting to be triggered into action. We also believe that our housing market remains very stable and strong, and that any destructive effects this pandemic will have on our economy are still a long-way off. 

Much remains unknown of course, and even the best predictions can turn out to be largely inaccurate. This is our polite disclaimer of any liability in case we're wrong!  

But all jokes aside, we remain confident in the market, and we see a bright light at the end of this dark tunnel.

Let's just stay focused on the light... and we can all keep sailing towards it.

Signing off...

Capt'n Mark